*** The dollar rose for eight trading days

The foreign exchange trading center announced that the median price of the US dollar against the renminbi on the 20th was 6.7110, up 62 basis points from the previous trading day. Affected by the increase in the middle price, the spot market renminbi against the US dollar reported 6.7180 in early trading, continuing to hit a new high since the exchange rate reform in 2005. At this point, the central parity of the yuan against the US dollar rose again, has risen for eight consecutive trading days, seven trading days hit a new high since the exchange rate reform.

The central bank recently announced that the new foreign exchange financial institutions in August accounted for 243 billion yuan, which was the highest in the past four months, indicating an increase in foreign exchange inflows. The industry believes that the appreciation of the renminbi in August is one of the main reasons for the rebound in May and June. Traders believe that the sharp appreciation of the renminbi in the short term was due to pressure from the U.S. side and no unilateral appreciation was expected. However, the market generally believes that the appreciation trend of the renminbi has already formed, but it will proceed steadily. It is expected that the renminbi will have 3% to 5% appreciation space each year in the next 3 to 5 years.

Standard Chartered Bank analysts pointed out: "The convening of the US hearings means that the new trade protectionism risk is rising. If the bill of the United States hearing on the manipulation of the RMB exchange rate is passed, the US Congress will immediately calculate that the RMB exchange rate is undervalued. If the value is announced, the U.S. steelmakers will certainly declare their own interests damaged because China subsidizes local companies through the exchange rate, and the U.S. Department of Commerce will intervene in the investigation,” the analyst pointed out. Then there will be a cycle of confusion. U.S. companies will think that all Chinese exports can benefit from the RMB exchange rate. The U.S. is likely to impose an undervalued tariff on all Chinese imports, and China will protest U.S. trade. Protectionism may punish related US companies in China and then petition the WTO. Therefore, once the bill of the United States hearing on the manipulation of the RMB exchange rate is passed, Sino-US relations will be unpredictably damaged. It took at least two to three years for trade disputes between China and the United States to enter the settlement agenda. ”

Yao Jian, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, pointed out at a press conference that in current global trade, China has a surplus with the United States, but there is a large deficit for Australia, Japan, and South Korea, if it is determined by trade balance. If the exchange rate of the renminbi is considered to be China’s access to the competitive advantage in trade through manipulation of the exchange rate (310368, fund), it will completely lose its basis for judgment.

Scholars from universities have pointed out that the different ways of appreciation of the renminbi have different effects on the market. If the trend is to increase, it will be positive for local currency assets (financial, real estate, insurance, etc.), high debt (aviation, etc.), and import industries (paper, steel, petrochemical, etc.). However, during the sharp appreciation of the local currency, the capital/asset industry performed relatively well, including securities, aviation, real estate and banking. During the period of slower appreciation, industries with significantly lower costs and export competitiveness have performed relatively well, including communications, chemicals, oil exploration equipment, metal products, paper, and electrical appliances.