The production capacity and crude oil prices have always been major factors affecting the development of the automotive industry, and they are also a topic that is always out of date and frequently used. The production capacity largely determines the relationship between supply and demand, and the oil price affects the purchasing determination of consumers. It directly affects the direction of the auto market. Therefore, regardless of the manufacturer or seller of a car, it is of great concern. Recently, overcapacity and oil prices have skyrocketed. At the same time, it has fallen on the auto industry. In addition, the implementation of the new consumption tax has begun. How will the joint effect of these factors affect the direction of the Chinese auto industry?
The capacity we have been talking about recently refers mainly to the production capacity of cars. It has always been a topic of constant debate in the industry. Looking back at the history of the auto industry, we can find a regular phenomenon: Whenever there is a strong sales in the market, then there will inevitably be excess capacity, followed by the macro-control and compression of the management department, followed by another round of supply shortage, and the manufacturers will again be able to increase production capacity. , so the production capacity again appeared surplus. In this way, the automobile industry has come this way for decades.
It should be said that at present, China's auto industry is in a period of great development. The overall market demand is continuously increasing, and the corresponding production capacity also needs to increase. However, how to grasp the increased timing and “degree†requires superb investment skills and market grasping capabilities. . If capacity is insufficient, it will lose the opportunity for development. If capacity is formed prematurely, it will also require a large amount of capital, and companies will be unable to afford it. The companies that have been declining due to poor investment timing and “degrees†have been too numerous to mention. For example, in the face of China’s “blowout†market in 2003, Volkswagen had announced that it would invest 6 billion euros in China to expand. Production capacity, although it was later amended, actually did not invest so much, but in 2004 it still became a turning point for Volkswagen in the Chinese market.
The opposite lesson, too numerous to mention, has lost development opportunities due to insufficient capacity, and in the end it has only chosen to withdraw from the market. At the beginning of 2002, domestic and foreign consultant agencies predicted that the Chinese automobile production capacity was seriously excessive, and it was asserted that the surplus will not continue until 2006. However, in that year and the following year, there was a serious shortage of supply in the market. Many companies lost opportunities for development due to insufficient production capacity. On the contrary, companies that have grown up have not only won real profits, they have also taken the opportunity to expand themselves and established a platform for subsequent development. Such as Shanghai GM, sales in 2002 and 2003 increased by 89% and 81% respectively, becoming the starting point for it to overtake the general public to lead the Chinese market.
Since the second half of last year, overcapacity has become a hot topic again. First, Ma Kai, director of the National Development and Reform Commission, asserted that the vehicle production capacity has been severely over-abundant, and the State Council recently issued a notice to confirm the overcapacity in the auto industry. The continuous reduction in the prices of sedan products in the market seems to confirm this judgment. Overcapacity, what needs to be done from a macro perspective is naturally to control the scale of investment, and the approval of new projects is further tightened.
However, according to the information obtained from the passenger car joint conference, from January to February this year, 93% of passenger vehicle sales nationwide were in a state of growth. Only two companies showed negative growth, and they were still “temporaryâ€. The overall market sales increased by 64.8% year-on-year, not only basically digesting the large amount of inventories accumulated in 2004, but many companies are still producing “overtime†and their profits are generally increasing. It seems that it is difficult to conclude that there is excess production capacity.
If we look more closely at the sales situation of each company, we will feel even more than the excess production capacity. Not long ago, the reporter interviewed Chery to understand that the company’s products such as Tiggo, Oriental Son, and A5 have been in short supply since the beginning of this year, and New Qiyun just met supply in March and monthly sales exceeded 10,000 units. Following the QQ brand, which has sold more than 10,000 vehicles after another month, CKD parts exported to Russia have already been owed more than 4,000 units in accordance with the plan. In January and February alone, there were more than 4000 vehicles owed to domestic sellers, and the sellers were compensated with losses of several million yuan.
A similar situation also occurred in Brilliance, and Junjie, which was listed not long ago, has been unable to supply goods. In addition, the leaders of Shanghai Volkswagen, Celato of Dongfeng Yueda Kia, Xiali of Tianjin FAW, etc. are also in short supply. Of course, there are also poor product sales, such as FAW-Volkswagen Bora, after its replacement product Sagitar released, there are sellers to Polaris R sports money price 60,000 yuan sale.
It is not difficult to see that different companies have different situations, and the current ability of the product-to-road enterprise is still insufficient. However, the ability of products that are not market-accepted is indeed an excess of capacity. Within the same company, there are products in short supply, and there are also poor sales of products. Therefore, the issue of production capacity cannot be generalized, and it is generally said that the excess production capacity is still not in surplus. Surviving the fittest and promoting innovation are the signs of the healthy development of the industry. A certain degree of excess production capacity has a positive significance for the development of the automobile industry. Controlling investment cannot be achieved in one go. Relatively speaking, self-owned brand enterprises and private enterprises are not overcapacity, but their production capacity is too small. The state should not only restrict their entry in policies, but should also support them so that they can grow rapidly.
Along with excess capacity, oil prices continue to rise. In fact, higher oil prices are also a "historical issue." Since 2003, international oil prices have continued to rise, climbing from less than 30 U.S. dollars per barrel to more than 60 U.S. dollars. Last year, they also rushed to a sky-high price of 70 U.S. dollars. They have recently come down somewhat, and hovered around 60 U.S. dollars. Domestic oil prices have been raised at this time, and the reasons for “coordinating with international standards†do not appear to be sufficient.
Compared with international oil prices, the fact that domestic oil prices are low is indeed a fact. Starting from the national energy strategy, bringing domestic oil prices into line with international standards has a very positive significance for saving energy and ensuring national economic security. In fact, domestic oil prices have also been on the rise. In 2005 alone, they were raised five times. The ex-factory price per ton of gasoline has risen by nearly 1,000 yuan. In three years, the retail price of gasoline has more than doubled.
A car is a machine that “drinks†gasoline. Naturally, rising oil prices will increase car use costs, further affect consumer purchases, and finally “implement†sales of cars. The impact on car sales, on the one hand, will affect the overall sales, but also affect the choice of varieties. In the past 10 years, China’s auto market has grown continuously at a rate of 15%, which has shown its inconsistency with society, especially the speed of road development in big cities. It is difficult to adapt to the speed of the roads in big cities, and the pressure on the environment is more prominent. It is also needed. Moreover, due to the restrictions on small-displacement vehicles, the development trend of Chinese automobiles is increasing. It is undoubtedly a bad choice for China, a country with a large population and poor per capita resources. While the state has lifted restrictions on small-displacement and adjusted automobile consumption tax, the adjustment of the oil price to the auto industry will undoubtedly have positive significance. The continuous and rapid growth of blindness is not always healthy for the development of the automobile industry.
Cheng Yuan
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