A report on the “World Economic Situation in the Mid-Year†recently released by the United Nations shows that the European economy has completely stalled and that it will achieve zero growth in 2012. The spillover effect of the European debt crisis is constantly emerging, and the US economic recovery is also showing signs of weakness. It is expected that the global economy throughout the year. It increased by 2.5%, lower than the 2.7% growth rate last year. Therefore, under such a big environment, China's economy must achieve greater stability in its domestic demand, and expanding the consumption of automotive products and services will become the first choice to stimulate domestic demand.
The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods fell back to the center of Beijing Beichen Yayuncun Automotive Trading Market. Ms. Zhao Ping, deputy director of the Consumer Economics Research Department of the Ministry of Commerce of the Ministry of Commerce, disclosed the following information: “The Mid-term World Economic Situation and Prospects for 2012 It pointed out that the European economy has completely stagnated and zero growth will occur in 2012. The spillover effect of the European debt crisis is constantly emerging, and it also has a great impact on the economy of the United States and emerging market countries. A series of recent US economic indicators have shown signs of weakness, and the fragile recovery of the US economy is gradually losing momentum. The global economic growth is expected to be 2.5% for the full year, which is lower than the 2.7% growth rate of the previous year.
In China, the main driving forces for economic growth this year have all weakened. The concrete manifestations are: the economic growth rate has dropped, the driving force of income to consumption is not the same as the previous year, and part of the expansion of consumer policies has been withdrawn. . In addition, the expansion of consumer policies such as "cars going to the countryside," "replacement of old cars," "home appliances to the countryside," and "replacement of home appliances" in the past two years has clearly supported consumption growth. period. From January to May, not only the nominal growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods was 14.5%, which was lower than the average level of 17.1% last year. The actual growth rate of 10.9% was also lower than the average level of 11.6% last year, and it showed a declining trend from month to month. In the month of May, total retail sales of social consumer goods rose nominally by 13.8% year-on-year, marking a new low this year.
Weak growth in auto consumption China's economic growth will rely more on domestic demand. From the perspective of the structure of domestic demand, since 2011, the contribution rate of China's consumption to GDP has risen rapidly. In the first quarter of this year, the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth was 109.4%, an increase of 8.6 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among them, the contribution of final consumption to GDP growth was 76.0%, an increase of 17.3 percentage points; the contribution of total capital formation to GDP growth was 33.4%, a decrease of 8.7 percentage points. Therefore, from the contribution of the troika to economic growth, the current stable growth will rely on domestic consumption more than ever before.
However, since last year, the growth of auto consumption has been sluggish. In 2011, due to factors such as the country’s macro-control, the withdrawal of consumer policies, the high base in 2010, and restrictions on purchases in cities such as Beijing, the growth rate of auto consumption has dropped significantly. The annual sales volume of the national auto market reached 18.505 million vehicles, an increase of only 2.45% year-on-year, the lowest in 13 years, and the growth rate was down by 29.9 percentage points year-on-year. Since the beginning of this year, despite the favorable policies, the growth in automobile consumption has not yet reached the expected growth rate of 10%, but it can only save eight.
From the perspective of the contribution of automobile consumption to total social consumption, automobile consumption has always accounted for more than 1/4 of the total. Even in 2011, when the growth rate of automobile sales reached a new low of 13 years, the ratio of automobile retail sales to total retail sales of social consumption was still as high as 26.66%. . The lack of growth in automobile consumption is one of the important reasons for the current lack of growth in total social consumption. Therefore, the expansion of auto consumption will have a strong supporting role in curbing the trend of consumption growth falling month by month.
External checks and balances on automobile consumption are currently in check and balance. At present, there is a contradiction in China's auto market: On the one hand, many stimulus policies have been introduced on the one hand, and on the other hand, some restrictive policies have to be formulated.
Following the introduction of the “Automobile to the Countryside†and “Old-for-New†policies in China in 2009, Premier Wen Jiabao presided over the executive meeting of the State Council on May 16 this year and decided to arrange financial subsidies of RMB 26.5 billion, of which RMB 6 billion will be allocated to support promotion of 1.6 liters and below. Energy-saving cars. There are various signs that auto consumption stimulus policies will be gradually introduced. However, Beijing and other places have also introduced measures such as car shakes, restrictions on purchases, restrictions on lines, and increasing parking fees that limit the purchase and use of cars. The external policies for car consumption are contradictory, and the problem of mutual checks and balances still exists.
In addition, rising oil prices will also increase car use costs. Although the domestic oil price regulation mechanism has been formed, despite the overall decline in international oil prices, the absolute price of China's oil prices continues to rise, adding to the burden on consumers.
Therefore, in formulating policies for expanding automobile consumption, three issues must be considered: First, what is the policy objective of China's automobile consumption and whether there should be an upper limit for the amount of vehicle ownership. Second, what is the general caliber of China's automobile policy and what kind of policy should be adopted before reaching the ceiling? Third, we must have proper exit channels for the old cars that have been eliminated, standardize and develop the used car market, encourage the development of automobile dismantling industry, and promote the reuse of resources.
Commodity consumption and service consumption emphasize both the rapid growth of service consumption in China, especially in large cities in the eastern coastal areas. Service consumption growth rate is much higher than other cities and rural areas, but the overall growth rate of service consumption in the country is still low, becoming a The main bottlenecks in China's consumption growth.
In 2009 and 2010, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in China was 15.5% and 18.3% respectively, but the year-on-year growth rate of household consumption was only 9.5% and 10%, respectively, which was lower than the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods. Six percentage points and 8.3 percentage points. Residents' consumption consists of two parts: commodity consumption and service consumption. While the high growth of commodity consumption, the growth rate of the total consumption of residents is obviously low, indicating that service consumption has dragged down the growth of consumption. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2009 and 2010, China’s commodity consumption scale reached 3.9 times and 5.2 times of service consumption respectively. Compared with the fast-growing and large-scale commodity consumption, the scale of China’s service consumption is still too small and the proportion is too low. .
Therefore, in addition to paying attention to the increase in the number of car sales, automobile consumption policies should also focus on the support of car-related service consumption. Such as car decoration, rescue, repair and other services.
The growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods fell back to the center of Beijing Beichen Yayuncun Automotive Trading Market. Ms. Zhao Ping, deputy director of the Consumer Economics Research Department of the Ministry of Commerce of the Ministry of Commerce, disclosed the following information: “The Mid-term World Economic Situation and Prospects for 2012 It pointed out that the European economy has completely stagnated and zero growth will occur in 2012. The spillover effect of the European debt crisis is constantly emerging, and it also has a great impact on the economy of the United States and emerging market countries. A series of recent US economic indicators have shown signs of weakness, and the fragile recovery of the US economy is gradually losing momentum. The global economic growth is expected to be 2.5% for the full year, which is lower than the 2.7% growth rate of the previous year.
In China, the main driving forces for economic growth this year have all weakened. The concrete manifestations are: the economic growth rate has dropped, the driving force of income to consumption is not the same as the previous year, and part of the expansion of consumer policies has been withdrawn. . In addition, the expansion of consumer policies such as "cars going to the countryside," "replacement of old cars," "home appliances to the countryside," and "replacement of home appliances" in the past two years has clearly supported consumption growth. period. From January to May, not only the nominal growth rate of total retail sales of social consumer goods was 14.5%, which was lower than the average level of 17.1% last year. The actual growth rate of 10.9% was also lower than the average level of 11.6% last year, and it showed a declining trend from month to month. In the month of May, total retail sales of social consumer goods rose nominally by 13.8% year-on-year, marking a new low this year.
Weak growth in auto consumption China's economic growth will rely more on domestic demand. From the perspective of the structure of domestic demand, since 2011, the contribution rate of China's consumption to GDP has risen rapidly. In the first quarter of this year, the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth was 109.4%, an increase of 8.6 percentage points from the same period of last year. Among them, the contribution of final consumption to GDP growth was 76.0%, an increase of 17.3 percentage points; the contribution of total capital formation to GDP growth was 33.4%, a decrease of 8.7 percentage points. Therefore, from the contribution of the troika to economic growth, the current stable growth will rely on domestic consumption more than ever before.
However, since last year, the growth of auto consumption has been sluggish. In 2011, due to factors such as the country’s macro-control, the withdrawal of consumer policies, the high base in 2010, and restrictions on purchases in cities such as Beijing, the growth rate of auto consumption has dropped significantly. The annual sales volume of the national auto market reached 18.505 million vehicles, an increase of only 2.45% year-on-year, the lowest in 13 years, and the growth rate was down by 29.9 percentage points year-on-year. Since the beginning of this year, despite the favorable policies, the growth in automobile consumption has not yet reached the expected growth rate of 10%, but it can only save eight.
From the perspective of the contribution of automobile consumption to total social consumption, automobile consumption has always accounted for more than 1/4 of the total. Even in 2011, when the growth rate of automobile sales reached a new low of 13 years, the ratio of automobile retail sales to total retail sales of social consumption was still as high as 26.66%. . The lack of growth in automobile consumption is one of the important reasons for the current lack of growth in total social consumption. Therefore, the expansion of auto consumption will have a strong supporting role in curbing the trend of consumption growth falling month by month.
External checks and balances on automobile consumption are currently in check and balance. At present, there is a contradiction in China's auto market: On the one hand, many stimulus policies have been introduced on the one hand, and on the other hand, some restrictive policies have to be formulated.
Following the introduction of the “Automobile to the Countryside†and “Old-for-New†policies in China in 2009, Premier Wen Jiabao presided over the executive meeting of the State Council on May 16 this year and decided to arrange financial subsidies of RMB 26.5 billion, of which RMB 6 billion will be allocated to support promotion of 1.6 liters and below. Energy-saving cars. There are various signs that auto consumption stimulus policies will be gradually introduced. However, Beijing and other places have also introduced measures such as car shakes, restrictions on purchases, restrictions on lines, and increasing parking fees that limit the purchase and use of cars. The external policies for car consumption are contradictory, and the problem of mutual checks and balances still exists.
In addition, rising oil prices will also increase car use costs. Although the domestic oil price regulation mechanism has been formed, despite the overall decline in international oil prices, the absolute price of China's oil prices continues to rise, adding to the burden on consumers.
Therefore, in formulating policies for expanding automobile consumption, three issues must be considered: First, what is the policy objective of China's automobile consumption and whether there should be an upper limit for the amount of vehicle ownership. Second, what is the general caliber of China's automobile policy and what kind of policy should be adopted before reaching the ceiling? Third, we must have proper exit channels for the old cars that have been eliminated, standardize and develop the used car market, encourage the development of automobile dismantling industry, and promote the reuse of resources.
Commodity consumption and service consumption emphasize both the rapid growth of service consumption in China, especially in large cities in the eastern coastal areas. Service consumption growth rate is much higher than other cities and rural areas, but the overall growth rate of service consumption in the country is still low, becoming a The main bottlenecks in China's consumption growth.
In 2009 and 2010, the year-on-year growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods in China was 15.5% and 18.3% respectively, but the year-on-year growth rate of household consumption was only 9.5% and 10%, respectively, which was lower than the growth rate of total retail sales of consumer goods. Six percentage points and 8.3 percentage points. Residents' consumption consists of two parts: commodity consumption and service consumption. While the high growth of commodity consumption, the growth rate of the total consumption of residents is obviously low, indicating that service consumption has dragged down the growth of consumption. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in 2009 and 2010, China’s commodity consumption scale reached 3.9 times and 5.2 times of service consumption respectively. Compared with the fast-growing and large-scale commodity consumption, the scale of China’s service consumption is still too small and the proportion is too low. .
Therefore, in addition to paying attention to the increase in the number of car sales, automobile consumption policies should also focus on the support of car-related service consumption. Such as car decoration, rescue, repair and other services.
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