Industrial policy support, short-term warming of the auto market, low-profile competitors... The self-owned brand looks like a bright spring. Is this really the case? The three experts invited by this newspaper have reservations about this, and their views are alarming.
Jiabin:
Zhao Ying Director, Industrial Development Research Institute, CASS
Jia Xinguang Senior Industry Expert
Li Haiying Automotive Analyst, Research Department, Anbang Group
Moderator: Guan Hongye, “China Business Daily Auto Reporter†reporter
I feel too good
In fact, self-owned brands have always been high-profile, and you have to look at the production and sales targets that they released in the past year are not double-digit growth.
Reporter: From the sales expectations announced by the joint venture car companies and local car companies, the situation is very different. Most joint-venture car companies are cautiously stabilizing, and most of the increase is expected to be within 10%; while self-owned brands generally have more than double-digit growth. Why are local car companies so high profile?
Zhao Ying: I believe there are two reasons for the high morale of self-owned brands. One is to look for the desire for small cars in the market, and the other is to expect the sweetness of policies to support “cars to the countrysideâ€.
Since January 20, when the purchase tax for passenger vehicles with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less has been reduced to 5%, the sales volume of small-displacement passenger cars has increased significantly. In some regions, the number of small-displacement vehicles has nearly doubled compared to the same period last year. This is not a temporary benefit but a long-term trend.
Another good thing is that “cars go to the countrysideâ€, that is, the state arranges 5 billion yuan to provide one-time financial subsidies for peasants scrapping three-wheeled vehicles and low-speed trucks for light trucks and micro-buses with a displacement of 1.3 liters or less. This actually further expanded the beneficiary face of self-owned brand cars.
Although the benefits are constant, I feel that self-owned companies are too optimistic and some companies are not even seeking truth from facts. Although the sales situation in January was good, January is good and it does not mean that it is good for the whole year. It is very difficult to maintain this growth rate throughout the year.
This year's domestic economic growth should reach 8% should be not difficult, I am more optimistic about commercial vehicles, cars can reach this range is not easy. If it is difficult to achieve an average increase of 8%, those targets that are expected to increase by 20% or more will be even more difficult to achieve.
Jia Xinguang: Actually, independent brands have always been the same. You can see if the production and sales targets they released were not double-digit growth.
Although multinational corporations have not commented on this issue publicly, in many multinational corporations that I have contacted, people have once expressed euphemistically: “Individual brand auto companies do not always feel good about themselves.â€
Li Haiying: Compared with the past, joint ventures do not expect sales to be high. This is the inevitable result of the rapid development of the domestic auto market to a certain stage. On the other hand, it is related to the operating conditions of foreign parent companies.
Since China's accession to the WTO, the annual increase in automobile production and sales has remained at a double-digit level. Actually, today's Chinese auto market is incomparable to its initial entry into the market, and its scale has been expanded several times. Under such a large scale, it cannot be maintained for a long time. Growing rapidly.
In addition, the foreign companies of the joint ventures will also affect the judgment of the Chinese auto market under the premise of bad foreign conditions. General Motors, Ford and other US car companies do not have to say, even Japanese car companies including Toyota, even a loss, which is very rare. This will inevitably lead them to redo their strategic adjustments and thus be more pragmatic in planning.
Global Car Industry Center bypasses China
The automobile industry walks around the globe, from Europe to the United States, the United States to Japan, and then back to Europe, it is very possible to bypass China.
Reporter: The global economy is so sluggish that everyone will not be better off. But what I want to know is, who will be the first to get up after this financial crisis? Who can seize the opportunity to become the biggest winner?
Jia Xinguang: Just as I said just now, the automobile industry has taken a global turn, from Europe to the United States, the United States to Japan, and then back to Europe, it is very possible to bypass China. In fact, it took a while to stay in Japan. Without stopping for a long time in Asia, it returned to Europe, where it was born.
Why do I say that? What are the advantages of Europe?
History goes without saying that Europe is the birthplace of cars all over the world and the brand value is certainly the most profound. In addition, according to the current evaluation criteria, Europe can be said to be the best in terms of form, platform, and craftsmanship. On the platform, which in itself is the invention of European companies, Volkswagen has now developed to the third and fourth generations. In terms of styling, there is a trend in the world, that is, whether the United States or Japan, will go to Europe to buy modeling, or put the design center in Europe; on the leading edge of technology and technology, European car companies, especially German companies also Have a certain advantage.
Now, the future development and technology are all in Europe, the United States has technology, and Japan engages in marketing. China is a manufacturing base.
But you can't underestimate this manufacturing base. It's not the same as simple assembly. It's a full set of manufacturing. We can provide a full set of spare parts to the world and do all the parts, which is also a good development.
Li Haiying: I do not agree with the European car will become the next bright spot. As you look ahead, apart from the local market, in the rest of the world's important markets, such as the United States and Asia, the market share of European car companies is far from Japanese.
I am more optimistic about Japanese and Korean companies. why?
First of all, with regard to new energy technologies, the European car companies led by Volkswagen and PSA have been indulging in clean diesel fuel. However, in contrast with Japanese companies led by Toyota, hybrid power has basically matured and no matter how unwilling European companies are. European car companies were forced to turn to compromises, including Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, etc., to develop hybrid power.
Secondly, with respect to market share, Japanese companies have one of the three points in the United States, and they are absolutely leading in Asia. Europe is only sticking to the base camp. Although the Korean car companies do not have such a large market share, they have a good momentum of development.
In addition, we can all see that small cars with economical fuel economy are becoming the mainstream of development in various markets around the world, and the main players driving the emerging markets are small cars, and there is no doubt that this is exactly what Japanese car companies are doing. Good at strengths.
Finally, and most importantly, the European car companies now have very good public development. Others, including PSA and Fiat, are not very good, and SAAB, Volvo and others are even worse. It is no wonder that Fiat has been spreading scandals recently. He has been with Chrysler for a while, and he has also formed an alliance with PSA. It has been eager to seek a breakthrough and rushed out of Europe, but it has not been so long.
Perhaps missed the opportunity to rise
The global automobile development center shifts, some people optimistically believe that after Japan is China, but it is not the case. In fact, after the financial crisis, China will not be implicated.
Reporter: Domestic policy support, consumer expectations, shrinking foreign markets, and financial crisis have caused serious damage to multinational auto companies. So, the independent brand seems to usher in the best development opportunity in history.
Jia Xinguang: In the past, some people in China said that the focus of global automobile development has shifted from Europe to the United States, and then from the United States to Japan. Some people are optimistic that the focus of world autos after Japan has shifted to China, but I think that is not the case at all. What happened. In fact, after the financial crisis, China will not be implicated.
It is true that multinational auto companies are losing weight, but what is certain is that the competitiveness of multinational auto companies after losing weight is certainly stronger. What worries me is that the financial crisis is temporary. After the global economy recovers, these multinational car giants will become stronger and their advantages for domestic car companies will become more apparent.
I remember once that there was a point of view that the 1990s was the last chance for the Chinese auto industry, that is, before joining the WTO. Why do you say that? Since we entered the WTO, we gave local car companies 8 years of protection at that time, and then the period was shortened to 3 years. However, we have been talking about joining the WTO since the 1980s and have talked about joining the WTO in 2001. In fact, it is entirely possible to develop two generations of products.
Zhao Ying: If you grasp the timing, your development will not be out of trouble. Chinese car companies may appear to be similar to Haier's iconic automobile companies. As long as the domestic market has such a large demand, there is a possibility.
But this is only an optimistic view. In fact, it is very difficult for a local car company to want to start in the international community.
I just came back from Japan. Although the Japanese car market suffered a continuous contraction last year, and even many large auto companies, including Toyota, suffered losses. But at this time, I have seen that the losses are good and the decline has not affected them at all. Given the direction of development, they still put a lot of money into new energy technologies and new product development.
In fact, there is nothing wrong with multinational auto companies. The fault lies only in the market. The macroeconomic downturn has left no one better off.
I also agree with Jia Xinguang that any economic operation is cyclical. Now it is a low point for the global economy, especially for developed economies. However, when the economy recovers and the market scales up, according to their development momentum, transnational vehicles The advantages of enterprises will be more obvious.
This is the case with Japanese car companies. Even if American companies are worse off, no one will stay in the sun for a long time this winter.
Li Haiying: Although the domestic sales momentum in January was good, in reality, regardless of the international situation or the difficulties faced by the domestic economy, it is far worse than people have imagined. As the renminbi continues to appreciate, the export market has fallen sharply. Now that the evils have emerged, the export of independent brands to the Russian market has been almost stagnant. Of course, this is also due to the restrictions of the other party. This raises another concern: trade barriers. This time, the United States rescued the market through "only buy American goods." I think the biggest impact is China. Auto companies will also be implicated, not vehicle companies. They are far from being able to export their strength. Those parts companies are hit. And suppliers.
In addition, the domestic market outlook has not been as optimistic as some local car makers who are making decisions. The strengthening of government control has led to a decline in the official car market, the economic crisis is far from being in the end, and personal income growth is not expected to be good. This has caused a decline in private car purchasing abilities and desires.
In fact, many of the so-called first-line local companies are all at the edge of the capital chain break and have to rely on national loans for a long time. Many second-tier local car companies have accumulated considerable funds and brands in other areas. And network resources, but now it is also encountering the passenger car market.
Don't talk about "bottom-hunting" in the future
The word “bottom-hunting†should not be mentioned after the Chinese automobile industry. How can one go to the bottom if the independent brands are not doing well? If not, I did not copy it at the end and I lost it myself.
Reporter: There are no shortages of news in the auto industry. From time to time, news of overseas “bargain-hunters†and acquisitions of international brands will be reported from time to time. What is the possibility of this matter?
Jia Xinguang: To those who have this idea, we should splash cold water first: We don't even have a Ssangyong, a small factory that is worth more than 200,000 cars, let alone anything else.
A few days ago, I and another friend also talked about this topic. We all believe that the word “bottom-sweep†should not be mentioned in the Chinese auto industry. Domestic car companies are not doing well in their own brands. How to "bottom the bargain"? If not, I did not copy it at the end and I lost it myself.
Li Haiying: Some people say that this financial crisis is an opportunity for independent brands to catch up with foreign companies. I cannot agree with this. Use economic crisis to shorten the gap, overseas mergers and acquisitions? Don't even think about it.
This is a feeling of some cakes filling the hunger. The company itself has not reached a certain scale and the brand image has not improved to that level.
Even with the multinational automotive giant's international operating experience and R&D strength, the acquisition of other brands will not be successful. It is even more risky for car companies in developing countries to merge with the loss-making car brands in developed countries, and it is easy to indigestion and fall short of success.
In the face of crisis, what matters is not expansion but contraction and hard work.
Zhao Ying: "The bottom-up, mergers and acquisitions" is so attractive to the eye that it is easy to understand that weak companies acquire strong brands and have news value.
Not to mention that we do not have our own abilities. From the point of view of buying and selling, people are eager to sell their products. It is difficult to have any good things. No one will be dedicated to you without leaving good things.
Therefore, when it comes to mergers and acquisitions, I think domestic car makers should be cautiously good. To go overseas for acquisitions, it is better to first deal with mergers and acquisitions of domestic companies.
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